【阅读笔记】数据分析思维：分析方法和业务知识
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【阅读笔记】数据分析思维：分析方法和业务知识
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數據分析思維分析方法
- 首頁
- 5W2H分析方法
- 案例1：如何設計一款產品
- 案例2：設計一款App的調查問卷，如何設計問卷上的問題？
- 邏輯樹分析方法
- 案例1：年度計劃拆解
- 案例2：芝加哥有多少鋼琴調音師？(費米問題)
- 行業分析方法
- 多維度拆解分析方法
- 如何使用多維度拆解分析方法？
- 對比分析方法
- 假設檢驗分析方法
- 相關分析方法
- 如何使用：
- 兩種數據之間有多大程度相關？
- 相關系數的作用是？
- 如何判斷兩者之間有“相關關系”？
- 群組分析方法
- 是什么？
- 作用
- 如何用
- RFM分析方法
- 是什么
- 有什么用
- 分類過程
- AARRR模型分析方法
- 是什么
- 獲取用戶：用戶如何找到我們
- 激活用戶：用戶的首次體驗如何
- 提高留存：用戶會回來嗎
- 增加收入：如何賺到更多的錢
- 推薦：用戶會告訴其他人嗎
- 漏斗分析方法
- 漏斗分析方法
- 參考書籍
首頁
在分析方法的指導下才能知道如何使用工具（Excel、SQL或者Python等）去分析數據，解決業務問題。
常用的分析方法
| 將復雜問題變得簡單 | 邏輯樹分析方法 | 費米問題 |
| 行業分析 | PEST分析方法 | 中國少兒編程行業研究 |
| 多個角度思考 | 對維度拆解分析方法 | 如何找相親對象？ |
| 對比 | 對比分析方法 | 女朋友胖嗎？ |
| 如何分析原因 | 假設檢驗分析方法 | 警察是如何破案的？ |
| A和B有什么關系 | 相關分析方法 | 豆瓣如何推薦電影？ |
| 留存和流失分析 | 群組分析方法 | 微博 |
| 用戶價值分類 | RFM分析方法 | 信用卡會員服務 |
| 用戶行為分析 | AARRR分析方法 | 拼多多 |
| 轉化分析 | 漏斗分析方法 | 店鋪哪個環節有問題？ |
在工作或者面試中，會經常聽到分析思維、分析思路、分析方法。這三個詞語有什么關系呢？其實簡單來說，他們都是只分析方法。因為分析方法是將零散的想法整理成有條理的分析思路。有了分析思路，你就具備了分析思維。
下文在講到每一個分析方法時，會從四個問題出發來學習。
5W2H分析方法
- 5H：what(是什么)、when(何時)、where(何地)、why(為什么)、who(是誰)
- 2W：how(怎么做)、how much(多少錢)
案例1：如何設計一款產品
- what：這是什么產品？
- when：什么時候需要上線？
- where：在哪里發布這些產品？
- why：用戶為什么需要它？
- who：這是給誰設計的？
- how：這個產品需要怎么運作？
- how much：這個產品里有付費功能嗎？價格是多少？
案例2：設計一款App的調查問卷，如何設計問卷上的問題？
- what：你用這款App做什么事情？
- when：你通常在什么時間使用這款App？
- where：你會在什么場景使用這款App？
- why：你為什么選取這款App？
- who：如果你覺得你喜歡這個產品，你會推薦給誰？
- how：你覺得我們需要加入什么功能才是比較新穎的？
- how much：如果你任務這個App對你有幫助，你會花多少錢去購買App里的服務？
5H2W分析方法很好理解，但是在復雜的商業問題面前不起作用。
這是因為復雜的商業問題不會只有一個原因，而是由多個原因引起的，例如銷售為什么下降，這可能是由多個原因導致的，這時候就需要運用其他分析方法
邏輯樹分析方法
邏輯樹分析方法是把復雜的問題拆解成若干個簡單的子問題，然后像樹枝那樣逐步展開。
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.edge-pattern-dashed{stroke-dasharray:3}#mermaid-svg-GlidAtO3h8Z5bXvh .edge-pattern-dotted{stroke-dasharray:2}#mermaid-svg-GlidAtO3h8Z5bXvh .marker{fill:#333}#mermaid-svg-GlidAtO3h8Z5bXvh .marker.cross{stroke:#333}:root { --mermaid-font-family: "trebuchet ms", verdana, arial;}#mermaid-svg-GlidAtO3h8Z5bXvh {color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.75);font: ;}問題子問題子問題子問題子問題子問題子問題子問題案例1：年度計劃拆解
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.edge-pattern-dashed{stroke-dasharray:3}#mermaid-svg-PNSclj1QXh5ahqOp .edge-pattern-dotted{stroke-dasharray:2}#mermaid-svg-PNSclj1QXh5ahqOp .marker{fill:#333}#mermaid-svg-PNSclj1QXh5ahqOp .marker.cross{stroke:#333}:root { --mermaid-font-family: "trebuchet ms", verdana, arial;}#mermaid-svg-PNSclj1QXh5ahqOp {color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.75);font: ;}芝加哥有多少鋼琴調音師63人全部鋼琴調音師1年的總工作時間
10萬小時一位調音師每年工作時間
1600小時有多少架鋼琴
5萬鋼琴每年要調幾次音
1年1次調一次得多長時間
2小時
需要注意的是，邏輯樹分析方法在解決業務問題時，經常不是單獨存在的，會融合在其他分析方法里，輔助解決問題。在后面其他分析方法的學習中，你會看到使用了邏輯樹的拆解圖來將一個復雜問題拆解成各個子問題
行業分析方法
什么時候需要用到行業分析方法呢？當個人在對自己進行職業規劃，思考選擇哪個行業更好的時候；當公司需要對外部環境或者行業競爭對手有所了解，制度發展規劃的時候；當面對重大問題，需要分析行業問題的時候。
PEST分析方法就是對公司發展宏觀環境的分析，所以經常用于行業分析。通常是由政策、經濟、社會和技術這四個方面來分析。
多維度拆解分析方法
兩個關鍵詞：維度，拆解
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.edge-pattern-dashed{stroke-dasharray:3}#mermaid-svg-hM5PcvaRdrzJc69i .edge-pattern-dotted{stroke-dasharray:2}#mermaid-svg-hM5PcvaRdrzJc69i .marker{fill:#333}#mermaid-svg-hM5PcvaRdrzJc69i .marker.cross{stroke:#333}:root { --mermaid-font-family: "trebuchet ms", verdana, arial;}#mermaid-svg-hM5PcvaRdrzJc69i {color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.75);font: ;}維度拆解維度1維度2維度3為什么要使用多維度拆解分析方法：考察數據整體和考察數據的不同部分，可能會得到相反的結論，所以我們要從多個維度去觀察數據，并相互驗證，才能得出相對可靠的結論。
如何使用多維度拆解分析方法？
從指標構成來拆解
從指標的定義來看，指標的構成，例如某店鋪最近做了一個活動，但是活動后發現預期銷售額沒達成，原因是什么呢？可以從指標定義來拆解。銷售額=新用戶銷售額+老用戶銷售額，所以銷售額可以拆解為新用戶銷售額、老用戶銷售額，然后可以繼續拆解新用戶的轉化和老用戶的復購：
新用戶銷售額=新用戶數?轉化率?新用戶客單價新用戶銷售額=新用戶數*轉化率*新用戶客單價 新用戶銷售額=新用戶數?轉化率?新用戶客單價
老用戶銷售額=老用戶數?復購率?老用戶客單價老用戶銷售額=老用戶數*復購率*老用戶客單價 老用戶銷售額=老用戶數?復購率?老用戶客單價
這樣拆解后，有利于后續找到原因來制定對應的決策，如果是“新用戶”導致的銷售額目標沒達成，可以對新用戶發小額無門檻的折扣券，因為新用戶往往還沒有對店鋪建立信任，不會第一次就購買很多。如果是“老用戶”導致的銷售額目標沒達成，可以對老用戶發高額滿減折扣券，起到提升復購率的效果。
從業務流程來拆解
一家線上店鋪做了一波推廣，老板想看看推廣效果如何呢。推廣效果最直觀的是看用戶增長了多少定義，衡量指標為新增用戶數。這里的新增用戶數是指看到推廣渠道的廣告進入店鋪的人數。
首先，我們可以按指標構成如城市、性別、渠道來拆解新增用戶數
其次，將指標按維度細分
按照地域細分，考察一線二線三線及以下等不同城市的新增用戶數量情況(可視化)。
按照性別細分，考察男性用戶、女性用戶分別是多少(可視化)。
按照渠道細分，考察公眾號、百度、頭條哪個渠道的用戶來源多(可視化)。
我們可以繼續從業務流程來拆解渠道數據。
用戶購買的業務流程如下：
按業務流程拆解后，查看各個渠道內各個環節用戶數情況，分析優質渠道。
對比分析方法
如何使用對比分析法？
想要進行對比分析，我們要弄清楚兩個問題：和誰比，如何比較。
- 和誰比
- 和自己比
- 和行業比
- 如何比較
- 數據整體的大小
- 某些指標可用來衡量整體數據的大小。常用的是平均值、中位數，或者某個業務指標。
- 數據整體的波動
- 標準差除以平均值得到的值叫做變異系數。變異系數可用來衡量整體數據的波動情況。
- 趨勢變化
趨勢變化是從時間維度來看數據隨著時間發生的變化。常用的方法是時間折線圖，環比和同比。- 時間折線圖是以時間為橫軸、數據為縱軸繪制的折線圖。從時間折線圖上可以了解數據從過去到現在發生了哪些變化，還可以通過過去的變化預測未來的動向。
- 環比是和上一個時間段對比，用于觀察長期的數據集。例如某數據在2020年12月比2020年11月下降10%
- 同比是與同一時間段進行對比，用于觀察長期的的數據集。例如某數據在2020年12月比2019年12月下降10%
- 數據整體的大小
在進行比較時，要注意比較對象的規模要一致。
??A/B測試的背后也使用了對比分析方法，什么是A/B測試，如果APP功能設計的讀者朋友們可能會經常面臨多個設計方案的選擇。例如某個按鈕是用藍色還是紅色，是放左邊還是放右邊？傳統的解決方法通常是集體討論表決，或者有某位專家或領導來拍板，實在決定不了時，也有隨機選一個上線的。雖然傳統解決辦法多數情況下也是有效的，但A/B測試可能是解決這類問題的一個更好的方法。
??簡單來說，A/B測試就是為同一個目標制定兩個版本，兩個版本只有某個方面不一樣，其他方面保持一致，例如兩個版本只有按鈕的顏色不一樣，讓一部分用戶用A版本（實驗組），另一部分用戶使用B版本（對照組），運行一段時間后，分別統計兩組用戶的表現，然后對兩組數據進行對比分析，最后選擇效果更好的版本正式發布給全部用戶。
假設檢驗分析方法
假設檢驗分析方法是一種使用數據來做決策的過程，底層思想其實很簡單，就是邏輯推理。
根據要解決的問題，提出假設。例如警察破案的時候會根據犯罪現場提出假設：這個人有可能時嫌疑人。
通過收集證據來證明。例如警察通過收集嫌疑犯的犯罪數據，來作為證據。
這里的結論不是你主觀猜想出來的，而是依靠找到的證據得到的結論。例如警察不能主觀地去猜想，然后下結論說這個人是罪犯，而是要通過收集的證據來證明這個人是不是罪犯。
案例1：
我們分析問題時可以按用戶、產品、競品這3個維度提出假設，來檢查提出的假設是否由遺漏。這3個維度分別對應公司的3個部門：用戶對應運營部，產品對應產品部，競品對應市場部。
這3個維度有助于在發現問題原因后，對應落實到具體部門上，有利于把問題說清楚。
運營部假設2:產品問題
產品部假設3:競品問題
市場部
我們還可以從4P營銷理論出發來提出假設。什么時4P營銷理論呢？
營銷組合有幾十個要素，這些要素可以概況為4類：產品、價格、渠道、促銷
為了尋找銷售額下降的原因，可以利用4P營銷理論從4個維度提出假設
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.edge-pattern-dashed{stroke-dasharray:3}#mermaid-svg-snjr8YXoLMqyysm7 .edge-pattern-dotted{stroke-dasharray:2}#mermaid-svg-snjr8YXoLMqyysm7 .marker{fill:#333}#mermaid-svg-snjr8YXoLMqyysm7 .marker.cross{stroke:#333}:root { --mermaid-font-family: "trebuchet ms", verdana, arial;}#mermaid-svg-snjr8YXoLMqyysm7 {color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.75);font: ;}用戶進入店鋪看到活動成為會員送折扣券點擊領取會員卡領取折扣卷案例1：解讀報表里數據的波動
| 日活躍率 | 14.4% | 14.7% | 16.3% | 17.8% | 14.5% | 1.8% | 4% |
繪制折線圖查看數據隨時間變化的趨勢：發現問題，周六數據下降了
為了更好的對比分析，需要找出前幾周的數據是怎樣的，這樣可以從整體上看出數據在一個較長時間范圍內是怎樣變化的。同時還可以看出數據變化的規律。
【圖省略】
通過和前幾周數據對比，發現這個App的規律是每周末的活躍率都有稍微的下降了5%。那么，本周六日活率為什么突然下降了呢？如何查找問題發生的原因呢？這時候假設檢驗分析方法就派上用場了。
假設1：用戶問題？-> 用戶數據
假設2：產品問題？-> 產品問題
假設3：競品問題？-> 競品問題
相關分析方法
研究兩個變量之間關系的方法就叫相關分析方法。
作用：
如何使用：
- 圖形：散點圖
兩種數據之間有多大程度相關？
- 相關系數
相關系數的作用是？
1、相關系數的數值大小可以表示兩種數據的相關程度
2、相關系數數值的正負可以反映兩種數據之間的相關方向
如何判斷兩者之間有“相關關系”？
如果相關關系的絕對值在0~0.3，就認為是低度相關；
如果相關關系的絕對值在0.3~0.6，就認為是中度相關；
如果相關關系的絕對值在0.6~1，就認為是高度相關；
可用Excel分析工具庫來分析相關系數，先用散點圖查看有無異常數據，再進行分析
相關關系不等于因果關系。
群組分析方法
是什么？
群組分析方法是按某個特征，將數據分為不同的組，然后比較各組的數據。
作用
群組分析方法常用來分析用戶留存率（流失率）隨時間發生了哪些變化，然后找出用戶留下或者離開的原因。在金融行業，群組分析還可用于用戶逾期分析
如何用
先試用群組分析方法，找到留存率低或者留存率高的組；然后就可以使用假設檢驗、相關分析等方法，研究為什么這些組留存率低或留存率高。找到原因后，就可以對應地優化產品。
當群組分析表格里的數據比較多的時候，直接分析起來比較困難，這時可以把數據繪制成折線圖，這樣就可以很容易地發現數據發現了哪些變化。
除了按時間分組，還可根據業務場景進行分組。
RFM分析方法
是什么
RFM是3個指標的縮寫：最近一次消費的時間間隔R、消費頻率F、消費金額M
有什么用
RFM可以把用戶分為8類，這樣就可以對不同用戶使用不同的營銷策略，例如信用卡的會員服務
分類過程
AARRR模型分析方法
是什么
AARRR：
獲取用戶：用戶如何找到我們
- 渠道曝光量
- 渠道轉化率
- 日新增用戶數
- 日應用下載量
- 獲客成本
激活用戶：用戶的首次體驗如何
提高留存：用戶會回來嗎
增加收入：如何賺到更多的錢
- 用來衡量業務總量的指標，例如成交總額、成交數量
- 用來衡量每個人平均情況的指標，例如客單價
- 用來衡量付費情況的指標，例如付費率，復購率
推薦：用戶會告訴其他人嗎
- 轉發率
- 轉化率
漏斗分析方法
作用：衡量業務流程每一步的轉化效率
漏斗分析方法
參考書籍
《數據分析思維：分析方法和業務知識》 - 猴子
總結
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